Some bold predictions for 2012

Golf Betting Lines

01/02/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The turn of the calendar brings so much promise.

New Year's resolutions are made and two weeks later, gyms will be back to normal attendance rates. Cigarette sales will return to averages and people will abandon any notions of improvement.

Is it cynical? Of course, but statistics bear out the positions. Personal experience accounts for some of those beliefs as well, but January is also a time for fearless predictions of the year to come.

So here are some thoughts on what we might see for 2012.

- Tiger Woods will win again, but not a major championship.

His victory at the Chevron World Challenge was something, but not a firm indicator he is back. If we take Woods at his word that injuries more than anything accounted for a down 2011, then he should have a productive 2012.

Woods will be two full years removed from the scandal and the more time that passes on that front, the better. He got that winning taste back in his mouth and that could lead to the old feelings.

No matter what, it's naive to think Woods would never win on tour again after the car accident. Why not 2012? He's indicated he will play at least one event he normally didn't, so it seems he's at least mildly interested in teeing it up more often.

- Yani Tseng makes a serious push for the single-season Grand Slam.

She is so clearly the best player in the world and dominance has run rampant on the LPGA Tour since 2000. First, Annika was unbeatable, then it was Lorena, and now it's Yani.

Both Sorenstam and Ochoa failed to threaten that single-season Slam, but if you can believe this, neither was as good a closer in majors as is Tseng already.

She only needs the Women's British Open for the career slam, and, she'll be 23 in mid-January. Tseng should still be carded in a state store, but she's so far ahead of the pace of her contemporaries, it's comical.

Tseng won two majors in 2011, but probably should've had a third. She didn't contend at the U.S. Women's Open. The chance at immortality could be too much to overcome, but Tseng's competition isn't as strong as Annika's or Lorena's. Cristie Kerr, Jiyai Shin and Ai Miyazato all regressed to some degree in 2011.

- The U.S. wins the Ryder Cup, then David Toms and Paul McGinley get the 2014 captaincies.

- The PGA Tour explores ways to get the season-opener out of Hawaii because attendance at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions is worse than Senior Cut Day. (It won't work.)

- No one gets suspended for failing a drug test.

- Jason Kokrak is your next PGA Tour star from the Nationwide Tour.

- Lexi Thompson struggles as a member of the LPGA Tour. Remember, she can't vote yet, so a full season of pressure like that will wear on her.

- The FedExCup playoffs will be better thanks to the additions of Bethpage and Crooked Stick to the rotation.

- The No. 1 player at the end of 2012 will be Lee Westwood, who wins the British Open.

- Pace of play in young golfers doesn't improve and my health is jeopardized becoming angry about it.

- Fred Couples dominates the Champions Tour without having to worry about the Presidents Cup captaincy. As a bonus prediction, Couples' name gets kicked around for '14 Ryder Cup gig, but he's dubbed "too old."

- He and Nick Price are the 2013 Presidents Cup captains.

- Phil Mickelson gets twitter and bores us to death with it.

- Rory McIlroy struggles a bit in 2012 after enormous expectations and celebrity status.

- People continue to complain about long putters, but nothing happens because they are completely legal and that will never change.

- Major winners - Masters (Adam Scott), U.S. Open at Olympic (Steve Stricker), British Open Championship at Royal Lytham & St. Annes (Westwood) and PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (Alvaro Quiros).

For now, the crystal ball gets put away with the Christmas ornaments.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.