Rounding Third: A's take a big chance on Cespedes

Baseball Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There was one last major order of business before some baseball teams open camp on Sunday and that was to find a home for Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

Well, that has been taken care of, albeit by a team nobody expected, the Oakland Athletics.

It's funny. While updating major league depth charts the other day, I noticed just how thin the A's roster was because their offseason up to this point has been primarily a purge, as starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez were dealt along with closer Andrew Bailey.

In all, Oakland received a total of 10 prospects in those deals, as the team looked toward the future with the hopes of competing by the time they open a new ballpark, hopefully by 2015. That's still not a lock, though.

Now they may have the biggest piece of that puzzle, landing Cespedes with a four-year, $36 million deal. That seems to be an awful lot of money for a player who's barely faced major league pitching from a team that just doesn't do business this way.

And with the way the contract is structured, Cespedes is not eligible for arbitration and can become a free agent after the 2015 season. Meaning, if Cespedes is this five-tool stud who everyone thinks he is going to be, the A's likely won't be able to retain him at that point.

The thought, of course, is that a stadium will be opening just as his deal is expiring and the team will be coming together as a contender, making the A's all that more enticing.

But, it's way too early to even get into that.

Cespedes had been a hot topic all winter, but most felt it was a fait accompli that he would eventually land with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins offered the same amount of money as the A's, but spread it over six years rather than the four in Oakland.

Both Chicago teams, the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles also were said to be in the running.

So why all the fuss?

Well, the baseball public first got wind of the 26-year-old slugger at the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where by all accounts Oakland general manager Billy Beane fell in love with him.

Cespedes hit .458 in his six WBC games, then hit .333 with 33 home runs, 99 RBI and 11 stolen bases over 90 games in Cuba during the 2010-11 season. His 33 home runs were a Cuban National Series record.

He defected from Cuba last winter and was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball on Jan. 25. However, he was not allowed to sign with a team until he was legally cleared by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

And that happened on Monday.

Cespedes, whose deal will be finalized once he receives a visa and takes a physical, can play all three outfield positions, but will likely slot in at center field for the A's, where he joins an outfield that already includes the likes of Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Collin Cowgill and Jonny Gomes.

So, yes, he should be able to contribute right away.

Cespedes will earn $6.5 million in 2012, $8.5 million next season and $10.5 million in each of the final two years of the deal. It's a far cry from the "Moneyball" mentality that has seemed to take on a new life the last few months, given how well the movie did at the box office and was received by critics.

Billy Beane will be the first one to tell you that investing your money in the lottery is not always the best idea. But, sometimes you have to take a chance and think outside the box. And nobody has been more outside the box than Beane.

Even with Cespedes, this team likely won't compete this year. But they will be a lot more fun to watch. And, oh yeah, Manny Ramirez may be joining him by the team breaks for spring training in Phoenix on Sunday.

Stay tuned.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.